Top 10 Most Dangerous Toys of All Time

Ahh....the good old days!

http://www.radarmagazine.com/features/2006/12/toys.php

10 films the US Government would rather you not see.

Well I usually don't post anything that has to do with politics, I'm more of the "pop culture" contributer to this blog, but I came across this article on digg.com and thought it might open up some good discussion, especially since the Stuffed Monkey has clearly been disengaged from posting lately.

HAPPY DAYS ARE HERE AGAIN!!!!

As Howard Dean might put it, "yeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!"

The 50 State Strategy is Working Part VI (The South and Farewell)

Finally, as the car crosses over into the Texas border, we have reached the American South, the killing ground for so many Democratic hopes and dreams. In 2006, however, the equation has changed, if only slightly. While there are relatively few opportunities for Democrats in the former Confederacy, more than half a dozen seats are either up for grabs or even favor the Democratic candidate.

Texas, District 22: Former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay resigned in disgrace some time ago and, ever since, former Democratic Rep. Nick Lampson is poised to return to the House. Lampson has run a smart campaign, and the Republican candidate is a write-in as a result to some unsuccessful ballot maneuvering by DeLay and his allies.

Now we skip a lot of ground in between Texas and Florida, pausing only to note that Louisiana Democrat Charlie Melaconan, who was thought to be in a competitive race as a result of the dispersion of his district after Katrina, appears to be in solid shape.

Florida, District 13: Katherine Harris vacated this seat as she decided to pursue a quixotic Senate race. While this seat normally would clearly favor the GOP candidate, bank executive Christine Jennings is running neck-and-neck with the Republican.

Florida, District 16: Mark Foley’s old seat. ‘Nuff said.

Florida, District 22: Longtime GOP incumbent Clay Shaw has had some close races before, but none closer than this one against State Senate Leader Ron Klein. Not only is Klein running a solid race, but this district also abuts Foley’s, whose scandals could have some spillover effect. Shaw, in fact, just released an ad mentioning his bipartisan work with Bill Clinton!

Florida, District 24: This one is barely on the radar, but a recent independent poll showed GOP incumbent Tom Feeney, who has been connected to the Abramoff scandal, in a close race against political neophyte Clint Curtis.

Now we drive up the coat, passing Georgia and South Carolina along the way, and observing that two Georgia Dems are in close races.

North Carolina, District 8: Grassroots favorite Larry Kissell is giving GOP incumbent Robin Hayes a run for his (vast amounts of) money. Kissell has an uphill race, but either way this one will be close.

North Carolina, District 11: Former Washington Redskins QG Heath Shuler is running ahead of long-time incumbent Charles Taylor in all recent indy polls.

Virginia, District 2: In this Virginia Beach-area district, Democratic challenger Phil Kellam is essentially tied with GOP incumbent Thelma Drake.

Kentucky, District 2: GOP incumbent Ron Lewis is in the tightest battle of his career against Mike Weaver. Look for Lewis to win, but it’ll be close.

Kentucky, District 4: Former Democratic Congressman Ken Lucas is looking to retake his old seat from Geoff Davis. Davis has been moving ahead in recent polls, but it will be close.

And that concludes the Stuffed Monkey’s tour of the U.S. ahead of the elections. We didn’t make it everywhere, so let’s give a shout-out to other strong Democratic candidates, such as Andrew Duck (MD-6), Paul Aronsohn (NJ-5), Linda Stender (NJ-7), Carol Shea-Porter (NH-1), Paul Hodes (NH-2), Peter Welch (VT-AL), Sharon Renier (MI-7), Peter Goldmark (WA-5), Darcy Burner (WA-8), Jerry McNerney (CA-11), and a whole host of others.

The 50 State Strategy does not guarantee a Democratic takeover of Congress. Indeed, many of the seats covered over the past few posts may not change at all. The point is that the strategy forced the GOP to spend money where they wouldn’t have had to spend money before. A lot more dough has gone into shoring up supposedly hard-core conservative districts, such as in Idaho, Wyoming, Nebraska, Pennsylvania, and Arizona, that there were only limited funds left over for their toss-ups.

Get out and vote!

The 50 State Strategy is Working Part V (The Interior West)

On this whirlwind tour of America, we now reach the interior West. We’ve already looked at Colorado. But there are a whole host of other races that are looking great for Democrats in what has been hostile territory for the past 12 years. Without further ado…

Idaho, District 1: Although Democrat Larry LaRocco held this seat for a time in the early 1990s, it went Republican in 1994 – and has stayed that way ever since. This year, Dem Larry Grant is running hard, and as an unapologetic Democrat. Even in a bad Republican year like this one, Grant shouldn’t have a chance. But he had the good fortune of having as an opponent the GOP nominee, Bill Sali. To put it mildly, Sali is a bit of a wacko. Even his Republican colleagues in the state legislature have called him an idiot. Grant has an excellent shot in this district.

Montana: Dems are favored to narrowly defeat GOP Sen. Conrad Burns.

Wyoming, At Large: Jackson school board president Gary Trauner is wearing down the boot leather in a smooth campaign against incumbent Barbara Cubin, who won an unimpressive victory in her primary race against an unknown. When you add Trauner's door-to-door march with serious missteps by Cubin, and throw in a possible spoiler in a Libertarian party candidate and the popularity of Democratic Gov. Dave Freudenthal, it's a recipe for success.

Nevada, District 2: University of Nevada regent Jill Derby is running a spirited campaign to fill the seat of Rep. Jim Gibbons, who is running for governor (and who has run into trouble with allegations that he assaulted a waitress). She faces Secretary of State Dean Heller. Heller’s favored, but an upset is not out of the question.

Nevada, District 3: Harry Reid’s former aide Tessa Hafen is running a good, but uphill, race against incumbent Jon Porter. Hafen’s secret weapon is her religion – a Mormon in a district where a lot of Mormons live.

Arizona, District 1: Rick Renzi was sailing free and easy until it was revealed that he is the subject of a corruption probe. This has given Democratic opponent Ellen Simon an opening. It’s a slim one, but it exists nevertheless.

Arizona, District 5: Blustery GOP incumbent J.D. Hayworth has finally met his match in the lower-key Harry Mitchell. In recent independent polls, Mitchell has pulled slightly ahead, but within the margin of error. The good news for Mitchell is that two weeks ago, this wasn’t even on the radar.

Arizona, District 8: The Republican Party pulled out of this race early when winger Randy Graf won the primary to fill the seat of retiring moderate Jim Kolbe. Gabrielle Giffords, the Democrat, is much more in the Kolbe mold and seems a shoe-in to win – perhaps the Democrats’ only guaranteed pick-up.

New Mexico, District 1: GOP incumbent Heather Wilson has her toughest opponent ever in state Attorney General Patricia Madrid, a recruiting coup for the Democrats. Madrid is slightly ahead of Wilson in the polls.

Next week is the final round-up as we cross over New Mexico in Texas and hit the rest of the South. Plus, we’ll give a quick shout-out to folks running in other races across the country that we didn’t cover – from New Hampshire and New Jersey to Washington state and California.

The 50 State Strategy is Working Part IV (The Heartland and a CT Bonus)

America’s Heartland has a bunch of potentially close races on tap next week. So let’s head on down Highway 61 in Minnesota, make a pit stop in Wisconsin, and cross over to the great states of the plains.

Minnesota, District 1: GOP incumbent Gil Gutknecht is facing a stiff challenge from veteran Tim Walz. GG is in the driver’s seat, but Walz is putting up a fight.

Minnesota, District 6: Child safety advocate Patty Wetterling is making her second attempt at this exurban district in Minnesota. While this seat is normally Republican, incumbent Mark Kennedy made a run for the open Senate seat. Kennedy’s expected to lose that race now. In this House race, Wetterling is up against Michelle Bachmann, a darling of the religious right. This will be a close race.

Wisconsin, District 8: This open Green Bay area seat is the scene of a tight race. Democrat Kagen is doing very well in a GOP district.

Iowa, District 1: This seat, being vacated by GOP Rep. Jim Nussle (who’s in a tight race for the open governor’s seat), is heavily contested by both parties. Most polls show Democrat Bruce Braley ahead.

Iowa, District 2: While moderate GOP Rep. Jim Leach always seems to survive in his Democratic-leaning district, in a strong Democratic year, he needs to look out in his race against Democrat David Loebsack.

Illinois, District 6: Democratic veteran Tammy Duckworth is trading leads with Republican Peter Roskam in a race to replace legendary Republican Henry Hyde. Roskam accused Duckworth of wanting to cut and run in Iraq. Bad choice of words – Tammy lost her legs during combat operations in that country.

Illinois, District 10: Democrat Dan Seals is running a great race to replace incumbent Mark Kirk. Advantage Kirk, but in a Democratic wave, you never know.

Illinois, District 11: GOP incumbent Jerry Weller has been the subject of rumor and innuendo. While it seemed to have been much ado about nothing, you never know what could happen. Democrat John Pavich is hoping to retire Weller.

Illinois, District 14 and District 19: One can always hope that the Foley scandal will dethrone Denny Hastert! Ditto for John Shimkus!

Missouri: Not much going on here, but the Senate race is a good ‘un!

Kansas, District 2: In what should be a fairly competitive seat, wingnut Jim Ryun always runs well. But he met his match this year in Democratic opponent Nancy Boyda. While Ryun still holds an edge, things have been shifting in Kansas this year. First, a couple members of the anti-evolution wing of the state school board are defeated in the primary. Then popular Democratic governor Kathleen Sebelius recruits a moderate GOP member to switch parties and be her running mate. And finally, more and more marginalized members of the moderate wing of the Republican Party starts switching parties. Something’s afoot.

Nebraska, District 3: Who woulda thunk it? Democrat Scott Kleeb is running a very close race in this overwhelmingly GOP district. Kleeb is young, telegenic, and smart. His opponent is largely funded by the Club for Growth, which is itching to get rid of farm subsidies. In a heavily agricultural district such as this one, it might not be the best strategy.

And, as a bonus, here's a link from Daily Kos on three close Connecticut House races.

The 50-State Strategy is Working Part III (The Rust Belt)

The 50 State Strategy is also making progress in two Rust Belt states, one which has trended Democratic since 2002 and one that has trended Republican since 1998.

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania has a popular Democratic governor in Ed Rendell, elected in 2002 over the Republican AG. And he is currently crushing former Pittsburgh Steeler Lynn Swann in the polls this year. However, the Keystone State has two Republican Senators in moderate Arlen Spector, who was almost ousted in the GOP primary in 2004, and rock-solid conservative Rick Santorum. A majority of its House seats are also held by Republicans. This year is different. Santorum has a well-known, well-financed challenger in State Auditor Bob Casey, Jr., the son of a former beloved governor, and Santorum trails by significant margins in the polls. With two likely wins at the top of the Pennsylvania ticket, the Dems are in a good position to possibly pick up a number of seats in the House. Once again, the videotape:

District 4: Conservative Melissa Hart is getting an unexpectedly stiff challenge from Democrat Jason Altmire. While this is an uphill climb for Altmire, a new independent poll has him within 4.

District 6: Republican incumbent Jim Gerlach and Democrat Lois Murphy have a rematch on November 7 after Gerlach narrowly won this suburban Philly seat. With Rendell’s vaunted Philly suburb machine, this one will go down to the wire again.

District 7: GOP incumbent Curt Weldon should have had this seat for life. But with an FBI investigation into his family members, a number of gaffes, association with the “Moonies,” and a strong candidate in former Admiral Joe Sestak, Weldon is the second-most endangered incumbent in Pennsylvania.

District 8: Veteran Patrick Murphy is making a strong run against conservative incumbent Mike Fitzgerald in a suburban Philadelphia district that had previously been held for years by moderate R Jim Greenfield.

District 10: Don Sherwood (R), representing this Scranton-area district, is now the most-endangered incumbent in PA, and perhaps the country. Not because of his district -- Sherwood has won handily the past few election cycles. However, stories of him choking his mistress are hardly the things a GOP candidate wants in the post-Foley arena. Challenger Chris Carney is leading in the polls.

Ohio

The Ohio Democratic Party had been moribund from after Clinton’s last win there in 1996. The GOP controls the state machinery and dominates federal representation. And there’s the rub for Republicans. Gov. Bob Taft and a whole host of state officials have been involved in nasty schemes, leading to indictments and the like. With the GOP in disarray, Democratic gubernatorial nominee Ted Strickland is heavily favored to defeat Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell. At this point, Democratic challenger Sherrod Brown is leading GOP incumbent Senator Mike DeWine in the polls. A number of House seats may also be affected, including:

District 1: Incumbent Steve Chabot has held on to this Cincinnati-area district for years now. A strong charge by Democrat John Cranley may not be enough, but Chabot is always in some amount of danger.

District 2: After Mean Jean Schmidt narrowly defeated Paul Hackett in the special election to replace outgoing rep. Rob Portman, it was made clear that the dynamics of this solidly Republican district had changed. Victoria Wulsin has kept up with Schmidt in the polls.

District 15: Deborah Pryce is a top dog in the GOP House leadership. As a result, the Foley scandal has damaged her and Dem Mary Jo Kilroy is making this a race.

District 18: Bob Ney was brought down by the Jack Abramoff scandal. Though indicted, he has refused to resign. He is retiring though, and his favored candidate, State Sen. Joy Padgett, was brought in to replace him. Democrat Zack Space has been leading in the polls in this GOP-leaning seat. It ain't over yet, but it's still looking decent.

Next: The Heartland -- Good, but scattered, races in the Plains: Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, Minnesota

The 50-State Strategy Is Working: Part II (New York), or Sorry Doug!

Although the Empire State has obviously tilted (er, lunged) Democratic, Ds will make a huge splash in 2006, largely because AG Eliot Sptizer has locked up the governor’s race. Spitzer may end up with more than 70% of the vote, thus reclaiming the seat of power in Albany after a 12-year hiatus. Sen. Hillary Clinton is also expected to win by a landslide. Their coattails may result in some significant down-ticket wins as well. Republican reps in upstate New York are feeling the heat from all quarters. Let’s go to the videotape:

District 19: Sue Kelly has held this seat for the GOP since 1994. She replaced long-serving rep Ham Fish, a liberal Republican. Kelly, while cloaked in a moderate’s clothing, is more conservative than Fish. This time around, she faces John Hall, one of the founders of the band Orleans (they of “Still the One” fame). (Check out this interesting album cover.) This race wasn’t on the radar; with the mood changing, and Kelly having been a member of the House Page Board at a time when flags about Mark Foley’s behavior were popping up, this could be a sleeper. Hall just won the endorsement of the New York Times.

District 20: This district was won by John Sweeney after moderate-to-liberal member Ben Gilman retired. Sweeney is more conservative. He may also be tied in with the Abramoff gang. This, along with the sour mood in the country toward incumbents and the Spitzer-Clinton coattails, make this an excellent pickup opportunity for the Dems, who have a credible candidate in Kirsten Gillibrand.

District 24: Liberal Republican Sherwood Boehlert, a stalwart champion of the environment, is retiring after long service. Scrambling to replace him are Democrat Mike Arcuri and Republican Ray Meier. Given the liberal tendencies of the district, and the good energy for Dems in the state, Arcuri may be slightly favored.

District 25: Jim Walsh, a fairly moderate Republican, has held onto this Syracuse-area seat for years and no one expected a tough race. But polling shows that Democrat Dan Maffei is in striking distance. Any other year, Walsh would have won in a cakewalk.

District 26: Tom Reynolds, whose troubles have been noted here and elsewhere, is suddenly a distinct underdog in a race that was his to lose. As today’s Washington Post notes, Dem opponent Jack Davis is keeping a low profile, allowing Reynolds to hang himself by his own petard.

District 29: Veteran Eric Massa is leading in the polls against underwhelming freshman Randy Kuhl. After the District 24 and 26 seats, this is the most likely Democratic pickup.

After the smoke clears, Democrats could potentially pick up 6 seats in New York. While this outcome is unlikely, the fact that even some entrenched incumbents are in danger is testament to the mood for change in New York and in the country. (Note that Dems also have a long, but decent, shot at the Long Island-area seat held by Peter King.)

Next -- The Rust Belt: Significant gains may be in the Democrats’ future in Pennsylvania and Ohio.

Take me out to the baseball ... movie

Okay, Stuffed Monkey is driving me bonkers with all of the politic-wonk posts. So, let's talk baseball since its that time of the season for the World Series. So, with that topic in mind, let's list some of the best baseball movies.

I'll start us off:

1) Bull Durham
2) Pride of the Yankees
3) Field of Dreams

The 50-State Strategy is Working: Part I (Colorado)

A lot of inside-the-beltway type of Dems, notably Paul Begala, scoffed at Howard Dean's "50 State Strategy" for the party. Under that plan, the party would field competitive candidates in a helluva lot of congressional seats, including ones that have been typically neglected.

But it's working.

With scandals rocking the GOP majority, including a to-be-named Republican congressman who is apparently sleeping with 16-year old pages (no spoilers here -- no proof yet, although one name has been floating through the blogosphere), Dems are getting some lucky breaks. And if the 50-state strategy wasn't in place, some seats may have gone unchallenged. For the next couple of days, the Stuffed Monkey is going to feature some key states where the strategy is bearing fruit. First off is Colorado.

Colorado may be the linchpin of the Democrats' attempts to win back the Mountain West and the southwest, both of which are covered by Colorado. The state has already been trending back to blue after a decade in the red wilderness. The state legislature swung back to the Dems in 2004, and Democrat Ken Salazar won the Senate seat vacated by GOPer (and former Democrat) Ben Nighthorse Campbell. And he beat a Coors in the process -- probably the only name more famous in the state is Elway.

Ds are close to running the table in 2006. Bill Ritter, the Democratic candidate for governor, is running far ahead of his opponent, Rep. Bob Beauprez. But, more to the point of this post, we're doing well in the House races. We have good candidates in the four House seats currently held by Republicans. (Democrats hold Districts 1-3 and are currently favored to hold them all.)

District 4 -- Marilyn Musgrave, whose one and only issue is a crusade against gays, is facing a stiff challenge from Angie Paccione, a state rep and former pro basketball player. Angie was recently endorsed by the Denver Post.

District 5 -- This very Republican seat in Colorado Springs, the heart of evangelical nation and home of the Air Force Academy, was vacated by GOP Rep. Joel Hefley. Hefley refused to endorse the winner of the GOP primary, Doug Lamborn, because of his divisive, nasty campaign. A recent poll showed Lamborn tied with the Democratic candidate, veteran Jay Fawcett. Fawcett was also endorsed by the Denver Post, calling Fawcett an "easy choice."

District 6 -- This district is represented by the execrable wingnut Tom Tancredo, whose raison d'etre is to bash immigrants. Fortunately, we have veteran Bill Winter opposing him.

District 7 -- This seat is being vacated by Beauprez in his sad little run for the governorship. The Denver Post picked Dem Ed Perlmutter over his Republican opponent. Perlmutter is also leading in the polls.

If the Dems play this right, they will control the governorship, the state legislature, split the Senate, and have a majority in the House. All this from a state that, just a few years ago, was completely dominated by the GOP.

Colorado ain't the only place that's looking good. Stay tuned...

Should Justices Engage in Public Debate About Interpreting the Constitution?

I came across this article on CNN, which details a debate between Justice Antonin Scalia and ACLU head Nadine Strosser. During the debate, Scalia discusses his view of what the Constitution says about hot-button issues such as abortion and affirmative action. I know Scalia often does this, and maybe it helps raise public discourse (it is, after all, refreshing to hear about issues of actual import than personal campaign smears).

My question is, when it is it appropriate for justices to discuss these issues in a public forum? Why shouldn't this disqualify them from hearing cases on these very same issues during the next session? Is there something unseemly about this practice?

"Lost" Thoughts?

Oh shit, it's been a week since the last post...oh well, work's busy. What can you do? Hey Susan, why don't you give your thoughts on this week's Sun-centric (not the Copernican kind) episode? Alas, I have to get to work early tomorrow, so I won't have time to do it myself.

They Knew

Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert knew.

Tom Reynolds, head of the RNCC (the arm of the Republican Party charged with House elections), knew.

John Shimkus, head of the bipartisan Page Board, knew.

These men not only turned a blind eye to a child predator in their ranks, they willfully covered it up. Shit, Reynolds even begged Foley to run this year.

Christ, this seems like a felony. Even if it's not, they've clearly lost any moral authority. Party of family values, indeed. Protecting child predators? The ghost of Joe Welch comes to mind: Gentlemen, have you no decency? At long last, have you no decency?

It's time to leave.

Hey Afghanistan -- Meet the New Boss, Same as the Old Boss (Literally!)

If Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-TN) has his way, the Taliban would participate in the Afghan government.

Excuse me, my head just exploded.

We have no evidence, none at all, that Iraq was connected to 9/11 or Osama or anything else. We have, on the other hand, direct and incontrovertible evidence that the Taliban harbored Bin Ladin and other members of al Qaeda before and after 9/11. They gave comfort and aid to a terrorist organization that is intent on killing Americans. They fought side by side the terrorists at Tora Bora. For all we know, they are still together.

And the Taliban are still killing American soldiers who have dedicated their lives to eliminating the terror threat.

So we keep fighting away in venomous Iraq -- where American soldiers are being killed at an astonishing rate, and yet we're ready to give up the ghost in Afghanistan.

Senator Frist and the other people who want to enable the continued viability of a terrorist-supporting regime should be reminded of the old saying -- you dance with who brung you. Or, in this case, who you brung.

The Chessboard Opens Up; More Pieces in Jeopardy

The Stuffed Monkey understands, first, that the posts on the Foley matter have been a bit of amoral realpolitick, focused on the political ramifications rather than the moral considerations. Tough.

Politics, like war, is essentially a game of chess on a grand scale. Pieces are in play all over the board, party people try to think a couple of moves ahead, and sometimes unpredictable moves occur.

The Mark Foley scandal is an unpredictable move.

The Stuffed Monkey last posted that there were at least two House seats in play -- those of Foley himself and John Shimkus, an Illinois Republican who headed a bipartisan committee responsible for the page program. Foley's seat, as Kris noted in the comments, is toast. Shimkus should be in trouble. Two headaches the Republicans don't need right now. But these guys are pawns in the game.

But, as details of Foleygate become more public, there are serious questions about what the Republican House leadership knew and when they knew it -- and why they put political considerations over the safety of minors. First, the stories of Speaker Dennis Hastert and Majority Leader John Boehner keep changing. I can't imagine either of these reps are seriously threatened for re-election, but there's going to be pressure from within and without for them to resign their leadership posts.

The pressure from within might be devestating. No one wants to be caught up in a sex scandal involving minors. They'll point the finger at each other. One already has -- Rep. Tom Reynolds, head of the NRCC, has pointedly said that Hastert knew of the Foley emails for a year, contrary to earlier suggestions from the Speaker that he just found out about it. Reynolds, from upstate New York, has a tough reelection battle, as Kris also notes. Obviously, this doesn't help. Nor does the fact that Reynolds' chief of staff tried to prevent the release of Foley's graphic instant messages. We're closing in on something more than a pawn here; maybe a knight or a bishop.

Another potential casualty is Rep. Deborah Pryce of Ohio. Pryce, too, is in a tough reelection battle, in a state that does not look hospitable for Republicans this year. Pryce has said she was unaware of the scandal until it hit the media. Well, she's in the leadership -- like #3 or 4 behind Haster and Boehner -- and either she knew or she did not. And that means she's either lying or she wasn't trusted by her colleagues -- in which case, what good is her leadership position? I have to imagine that a line of reasoning in support of Pryce's reelection was that very position. Now, the leadership is tainted. In any event, whether or not she's involved in the cover-up, her Democratic challenger can use this scandal to attack the morally bankrupt House leadership in which Pryce plays a prominent role.

It is now up to the Democrats to play this smartly. It's going to be a hard road to 15 seats -- the magic number -- no matter which way you look at it. A couple of days ago, I was increasingly pessimistic over the chances of a House takeover. But the game has changed. The chessboard has opened up.